As we anticipated in the article on the evolution of photovoltaic prices published at the end of last year, the market is entering a new phase after a period of minimum prices. This forecast is now beginning to materialize through concrete international decisions that will directly impact solar project costs during 2026.
A change in Chinese fiscal policy for photovoltaics and batteries
The Ministry of Finance of the People’s Republic of China has officially confirmed a significant adjustment to export tax rebates for photovoltaic products:
From April 1, 2026, VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products will be completely eliminated.
Regarding batteries, from April 1 to December 31, 2026, the rebate will be reduced from 9% to 6%, and from January 1, 2027, it will be fully eliminated.
This measure forms part of a strategy by the Chinese government to:
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Reduce excess production capacity.
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Reorganize the market.
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Support manufacturers with greater technological capacity and efficiency.
What does this mean for the European market?
China remains the origin of a large share of the panels, inverters, and storage systems installed in Europe. The reduction or elimination of these tax rebates implies:
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Increased export costs.
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Progressive price increases, estimated between 10% and 15% for Chinese panels and batteries as inventories are renewed.
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Commercial conditions from the first quarter of 2026 that may not continue after April.
This change is not temporary; it represents a structural adjustment in production costs that will influence the market in the medium and long term.
As explained in the first article, after years of exceptionally low prices, the sector is entering a natural adjustment phase. This decision by the Chinese government confirms this new dynamic, with fewer fiscal incentives, stronger production discipline, and greater weight of real costs in final equipment prices.
We are not talking about uncontrolled price increases, but rather the end of a historically low price scenario.
Profitability remains very high
It is important to stress that, despite these adjustments, photovoltaics remains one of the most profitable investments for companies with high energy consumption:
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Panels represent approximately 20% of the total turnkey installation cost.
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Electricity prices remain volatile with a structural upward trend.
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Self-consumption continues to generate immediate savings, cost visibility, and protection against energy market fluctuations.
How to act in this new scenario
This context reinforces the importance of planning ahead:
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Review project schedules and budgets planned for 2026.
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Assess whether purchases should be advanced before April 1 to benefit from current prices and available stock.
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Avoid short-term price-driven decisions; analyze needs with a multi-quarter perspective.
The role of Solventa6
At Solventa6, we work based on technical criteria and verified information. In a scenario like the current one, we add value by helping companies:
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Distinguish market noise from structural trends.
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Decide whether to advance, adjust, or maintain project timelines.
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Review contracts, deadlines, and scenarios based on real data.
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Guarantee long-term quality, reliability, and profitability.
For many companies, 2026 remains an excellent year to invest in photovoltaics. The difference will depend on when and how decisions are made. Understanding the context, acting with reliable information, and anticipating when appropriate remains the best strategy.
