A few days ago, we published a reflection on LinkedIn about the impact that the conflict in the Middle East could have on energy prices and how this situation could affect both companies and consumers. At this point, with the real market data recorded over the past few weeks, we can already begin to see that the first market movements are heading in the direction we anticipated. Energy markets react very quickly to geopolitical uncertainty, especially when it affects key regions for global energy supply.
The latest energy market references show increasing price pressure:
- TTF Gas: 50 – 55 €/MWh
- Expected OMIE electricity market: 60 – 85 €/MWh
- Brent oil: 90 – 100 $/barrel
These figures indicate a highly volatile scenario, in which prices may experience significant temporary increases. This volatility is especially evident in the daily electricity market.
Source: OMIE – evolution of the spot price in the electricity market.
The chart shows how, in recent weeks, the market has been experiencing increasingly pronounced peaks, reflecting an energy system that is highly sensitive to any source of tension. This is relevant because it not only raises the average price, but also increases the energy spread, meaning the difference between cheaper and more expensive hours.
Three possible scenarios:
In the short and medium term, the evolution of energy prices will mainly depend on the duration of the conflict and the level of tension in international markets. At present, the most likely hypothesis put forward by many analysts is a conflict lasting between 3 and 6 months. Based on that, we can summarize three possible scenarios:
- Scenario 1 — Short conflict (2 months)
Moderate increase in energy prices. Possible impact:
- Petrol: +5% to +8%
- Gas: +10% to +15%
- Household electricity: +10% to +15%
- Business electricity: +12% to +18%
The impact would likely be noticeable on bills for around 2 to 3 months.
- Scenario 2 — Medium-length conflict (4 months)
This is one of the most plausible scenarios. Probable impact:
- Petrol: +10% to +15%
- Gas: +15% to +25%
- Household electricity: +20% to +30%
- Business electricity: +25% to +30%
Bills could remain elevated for 4 to 6 months, as energy markets usually react with some delay.
- Scenario 3 — Prolonged conflict (6 months)
In this scenario, energy markets could enter a phase of structural tension. Possible impact:
- Petrol: +20%
- Gas: +30%
- Household electricity: +30% to +40%
- Business electricity: +35% to +45%
In this case, the impact could last up to 9 or 12 months.
How does this really affect me?
- Residential case
A household currently paying €150 per month for electricity could end up paying approximately €200 per month.
If this situation continues for a year, the impact would be around an additional €600 per year.
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Company case 1
A company with an energy bill of €10,000 per month could see its costs increase to approximately €13,000 per month.
Over one year, this would represent an additional €36,000 in energy costs. For many industrial or logistics companies, this increase can have a direct impact on margins.
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Company case 2
A company with an energy bill of €200,000 per month could see its costs increase to approximately €260,000 per month.
Over one year, this would represent an additional €720,000 in energy costs. For many industrial or logistics companies, this increase can have a direct impact on margins.
What can we do in this scenario?
In the face of an uncertain energy context, more and more companies and households are choosing to reduce their exposure to the electricity market. There are two key solutions:
- Install or expand photovoltaic systems
Photovoltaic generation makes it possible to produce your own energy and reduce dependence on the electricity market. In a context of energy volatility, photovoltaic systems become a key tool for stabilizing energy costs.
- Incorporate storage systems (BESS)
BESS (Battery Energy Storage Systems) are becoming increasingly important. When the market shows a wide spread between low-price and high-price hours, storing energy when it is cheap and using it when it is expensive creates much greater value. With estimated intraday spreads of €25 to €45/MWh, the profitability of storage systems has increased significantly.
Conclusion:
Energy markets are already beginning to reflect current geopolitical tensions. Everything suggests that the coming months will be marked by greater volatility, more pronounced price peaks, and higher energy costs.
That is why anticipating what lies ahead is key. Companies and consumers that invest in self-consumption and energy storage will be better prepared to face an increasingly uncertain energy scenario.
