{"id":5701,"date":"2026-03-11T10:19:04","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T09:19:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.solventa6.com\/el-mercat-energetic-confirma-la-tendencia-dades-reals-i-escenaris-per-als-proxims-mesos\/"},"modified":"2026-03-11T14:45:46","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T13:45:46","slug":"the-energy-market-confirms-the-trend-real-data-and-scenarios-for-the-coming-months","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.solventa6.com\/en\/the-energy-market-confirms-the-trend-real-data-and-scenarios-for-the-coming-months\/","title":{"rendered":"The energy market confirms the trend: real data and scenarios for the coming months"},"content":{"rendered":"[vc_row type=&#8221;in_container&#8221; full_screen_row_position=&#8221;middle&#8221; column_margin=&#8221;default&#8221; column_direction=&#8221;default&#8221; column_direction_tablet=&#8221;default&#8221; column_direction_phone=&#8221;default&#8221; scene_position=&#8221;center&#8221; text_color=&#8221;dark&#8221; text_align=&#8221;left&#8221; row_border_radius=&#8221;none&#8221; row_border_radius_applies=&#8221;bg&#8221; overflow=&#8221;visible&#8221; overlay_strength=&#8221;0.3&#8243; gradient_direction=&#8221;left_to_right&#8221; shape_divider_position=&#8221;bottom&#8221; bg_image_animation=&#8221;none&#8221;][vc_column column_padding=&#8221;no-extra-padding&#8221; column_padding_tablet=&#8221;inherit&#8221; column_padding_phone=&#8221;inherit&#8221; column_padding_position=&#8221;all&#8221; column_element_direction_desktop=&#8221;default&#8221; column_element_spacing=&#8221;default&#8221; desktop_text_alignment=&#8221;default&#8221; tablet_text_alignment=&#8221;default&#8221; phone_text_alignment=&#8221;default&#8221; background_color_opacity=&#8221;1&#8243; background_hover_color_opacity=&#8221;1&#8243; column_backdrop_filter=&#8221;none&#8221; column_shadow=&#8221;none&#8221; column_border_radius=&#8221;none&#8221; column_link_target=&#8221;_self&#8221; column_position=&#8221;default&#8221; gradient_direction=&#8221;left_to_right&#8221; overlay_strength=&#8221;0.3&#8243; width=&#8221;1\/1&#8243; tablet_width_inherit=&#8221;default&#8221; animation_type=&#8221;default&#8221; bg_image_animation=&#8221;none&#8221; border_type=&#8221;simple&#8221; column_border_width=&#8221;none&#8221; column_border_style=&#8221;solid&#8221;][vc_column_text css=&#8221;&#8221; text_direction=&#8221;default&#8221;]\n<p data-start=\"5075\" data-end=\"5584\">A few days ago, we published a reflection on <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/feed\/update\/urn:li:activity:7434876617782550529\/\">LinkedIn about the impact that the conflict in the Middle East could have on energy prices<\/a> <\/strong>and how this situation could affect both companies and consumers. At this point, <strong>with the real market data recorded over the past few weeks<\/strong>, we can already begin to see that the first market <strong>movements are heading in the direction we anticipated.<\/strong> Energy markets react very quickly to geopolitical uncertainty, especially when it affects key regions for global energy supply.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"5586\" data-end=\"5653\">The latest energy market references show increasing price pressure:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"5655\" data-end=\"5680\"><strong>TTF Gas:<\/strong> 50 \u2013 55 \u20ac\/MWh<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"5682\" data-end=\"5732\"><strong>Expected OMIE electricity market:<\/strong> 60 \u2013 85 \u20ac\/MWh<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"5734\" data-end=\"5765\"><strong>Brent oil:<\/strong> 90 \u2013 100 $\/barrel<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"5767\" data-end=\"5952\">These figures indicate a highly <strong>volatile scenario,<\/strong> in which prices may experience significant temporary increases. This volatility is especially evident in the daily electricity market.<\/p>\n[\/vc_column_text][image_with_animation image_url=&#8221;5696&#8243; image_size=&#8221;medium_large&#8221; animation_type=&#8221;entrance&#8221; animation=&#8221;None&#8221; animation_movement_type=&#8221;transform_y&#8221; hover_animation=&#8221;none&#8221; alignment=&#8221;&#8221; border_radius=&#8221;none&#8221; box_shadow=&#8221;none&#8221; image_loading=&#8221;default&#8221; max_width=&#8221;100%&#8221; max_width_mobile=&#8221;default&#8221;][image_with_animation image_size=&#8221;full&#8221; animation_type=&#8221;entrance&#8221; animation=&#8221;None&#8221; animation_movement_type=&#8221;transform_y&#8221; hover_animation=&#8221;none&#8221; alignment=&#8221;&#8221; border_radius=&#8221;none&#8221; box_shadow=&#8221;none&#8221; image_loading=&#8221;default&#8221; max_width=&#8221;100%&#8221; max_width_mobile=&#8221;default&#8221;][vc_column_text css=&#8221;&#8221; text_direction=&#8221;default&#8221;]<em>Source: OMIE \u2013 evolution of the spot price in the electricity market.<\/em>[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css=&#8221;&#8221; text_direction=&#8221;default&#8221;]\n<p data-start=\"6029\" data-end=\"6375\">The chart shows how, in recent weeks, the market has been <strong>experiencing increasingly pronounced peaks,<\/strong> reflecting an energy system that is highly sensitive to any source of tension. This is relevant because it <strong>not only raises the average price,<\/strong> but also increases the <strong>energy spread<\/strong>, meaning the difference between cheaper and more expensive hours.<\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"6377\" data-end=\"6406\"><strong data-start=\"6377\" data-end=\"6406\">Three possible scenarios:<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"6408\" data-end=\"6742\">In the short and medium term, the evolution of energy prices will mainly depend on the <strong>duration of the conflict and the level of tension in international markets.<\/strong> At present, the most likely hypothesis put forward by many analysts is a <strong>conflict lasting between 3 and 6 months.<\/strong> Based on that, we can summarize three possible scenarios:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong data-start=\"6744\" data-end=\"6786\">Scenario 1 \u2014 Short conflict (2 months)<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Moderate increase in energy prices. Possible impact:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"6843\" data-end=\"6958\"><strong>Petrol:<\/strong> +5% to +8%<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"6843\" data-end=\"6958\"><strong>Gas:<\/strong> +10% to +15%<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"6843\" data-end=\"6958\"><strong>Household electricity:<\/strong> +10% to +15%<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"6843\" data-end=\"6958\"><strong>Business electricity:<\/strong> +12% to +18%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"6960\" data-end=\"7032\">The impact would likely be noticeable on bills for around <strong>2 to 3 months.<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"7034\" data-end=\"7148\"><strong data-start=\"7034\" data-end=\"7084\">Scenario 2 \u2014 Medium-length conflict (4 months)<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>This is one of the most plausible scenarios. Probable impact:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"7150\" data-end=\"7267\"><strong>Petrol:<\/strong> +10% to +15%<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"7150\" data-end=\"7267\"><strong>Gas:<\/strong> +15% to +25%<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"7150\" data-end=\"7267\"><strong>Household electricity:<\/strong> +20% to +30%<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"7150\" data-end=\"7267\"><strong>Business electricity:<\/strong> +25% to +30%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"7269\" data-end=\"7364\">Bills could remain elevated for <strong>4 to 6 months<\/strong>, as energy markets usually react with some delay.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"7366\" data-end=\"7507\"><strong data-start=\"7366\" data-end=\"7412\">Scenario 3 \u2014 Prolonged conflict (6 months)<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In this scenario, energy markets could enter a phase of structural tension. Possible impact:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"7509\" data-end=\"7610\"><strong>Petrol:<\/strong> +20%<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"7509\" data-end=\"7610\"><strong>Gas:<\/strong> +30%<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"7509\" data-end=\"7610\"><strong>Household electricity:<\/strong> +30% to +40%<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"7509\" data-end=\"7610\"><strong>Business electricity:<\/strong> +35% to +45%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"7612\" data-end=\"7669\">In this case, the impact could last up to <strong>9 or 12 months.<\/strong><\/p>\n<h3><strong data-start=\"7671\" data-end=\"7706\">How does this really affect me?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"7708\" data-end=\"7840\"><strong data-start=\"7708\" data-end=\"7728\">Residential case<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>A household currently paying <strong>\u20ac150 per month for electricity<\/strong> could end up paying approximately <strong>\u20ac200 per month.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"7842\" data-end=\"7937\">If this situation continues for a year, the impact would be around an additional <strong>\u20ac600 per year.<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"7939\" data-end=\"8060\">\n<p data-start=\"776\" data-end=\"794\"><strong data-start=\"776\" data-end=\"794\">Company case 1<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"796\" data-end=\"919\">A company with an energy bill of <strong data-start=\"829\" data-end=\"850\">\u20ac10,000 per month<\/strong> could see its costs increase to approximately <strong data-start=\"897\" data-end=\"918\">\u20ac13,000 per month<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"921\" data-end=\"1094\">Over one year, this would represent <strong data-start=\"957\" data-end=\"998\">an additional \u20ac36,000 in energy costs<\/strong>. For many industrial or logistics companies, this increase can have a direct impact on margins.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"7939\" data-end=\"8060\">\n<p data-start=\"921\" data-end=\"1094\"><strong data-start=\"1096\" data-end=\"1114\">Company case 2<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1116\" data-end=\"1241\">A company with an energy bill of <strong data-start=\"1149\" data-end=\"1171\">\u20ac200,000 per month<\/strong> could see its costs increase to approximately <strong data-start=\"1218\" data-end=\"1240\">\u20ac260,000 per month<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1243\" data-end=\"1417\">Over one year, this would represent <strong data-start=\"1279\" data-end=\"1321\">an additional \u20ac720,000 in energy costs<\/strong>. For many industrial or logistics companies, this increase can have a direct impact on margins.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3 data-start=\"8228\" data-end=\"8264\"><strong data-start=\"8228\" data-end=\"8264\">What can we do in this scenario?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"8266\" data-end=\"8442\">In the face of an uncertain energy context, more and more companies and households are choosing to <strong>reduce their exposure to the electricity market.<\/strong> There are two key solutions:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"8444\" data-end=\"8710\"><strong data-start=\"8444\" data-end=\"8486\">Install or expand photovoltaic systems<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Photovoltaic generation makes it possible to <strong>produce your own energy and reduce dependence on the electricity market.<\/strong> In a context of energy volatility, photovoltaic systems become a key tool for stabilizing energy costs.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"8712\" data-end=\"9114\"><strong data-start=\"8712\" data-end=\"8750\">Incorporate storage systems (BESS)<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>BESS (Battery Energy Storage Systems)<\/strong> are becoming increasingly important. When the market shows a wide <strong>spread between low-price and high-price hours,<\/strong> storing energy when it is cheap and using it when it is expensive <strong>creates much greater value.<\/strong> With estimated intraday spreads of <strong>\u20ac25 to \u20ac45\/MWh<\/strong>, the profitability of storage systems has<strong> increased significantly.<\/strong><\/p>\n<h3 data-start=\"9116\" data-end=\"9131\"><strong data-start=\"9116\" data-end=\"9131\">Conclusion:<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"9133\" data-end=\"9346\">Energy markets are already beginning to reflect current geopolitical tensions. Everything suggests that the coming months will be marked by greater volatility<strong>, more pronounced price peaks, and higher energy costs.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"9348\" data-end=\"9546\">That is why <strong>anticipating what lies ahead is key.<\/strong> Companies and consumers that invest in <strong>self-consumption and energy storage<\/strong> will be better prepared to face an increasingly uncertain energy scenario.<\/p>\n[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[vc_row type=&#8221;in_container&#8221; full_screen_row_position=&#8221;middle&#8221; column_margin=&#8221;default&#8221; column_direction=&#8221;default&#8221; column_direction_tablet=&#8221;default&#8221; column_direction_phone=&#8221;default&#8221; scene_position=&#8221;center&#8221; text_color=&#8221;dark&#8221; text_align=&#8221;left&#8221; row_border_radius=&#8221;none&#8221; row_border_radius_applies=&#8221;bg&#8221; overflow=&#8221;visible&#8221; 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